At least two thousand deaths, mostly elderly people often living at home, a jump of 30% in one week: destined to increase, this first assessment of the exceptional heatwave in June shows that two regions, Île-de-France and Pays de la Loire, were particularly affected. During the week of June 22, the French Public Health agency reported, in a report published Friday, “an increase of +29.1%, corresponding to 2,025 additional deaths compared to the previous week.”
These figures are published while France is barely recovering from the heatwave at the end of June, exceptional in its duration and intensity, with the three hottest days ever recorded. A health assessment all the more awaited as this heatwave is already considered more intense, climatically, than that of 2003, which killed some 15,000 people in France, mainly elderly. In terms of duration, it is close: the June episode lasted fourteen days, compared to sixteen in 2003, Météo-France announced on Friday.
At the European level, this heat wave would have been almost impossible in June, without climate change, according to climatologists from World Weather Attribution.
“Not comparable with the 2003 episode”
The subject took a political turn at the start of the week. Accusing the government of inaction, environmentalists put forward a death toll of 10,000 for the June episode, sparking a strong denial from Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu. In this sensitive context, Friday’s figures will not give a definitive answer, even if the health authorities are confident that deaths are fewer this time than in 2003.
In terms of mortality, the June heatwave “(is) not comparable with the episode of 2003”, insisted TF1 the Minister of Health, Stéphanie Rist. During an exchange with the press, Public Health France, for its part, warned that it was necessary “to be careful in very rapid comparisons of two events which are nevertheless different”.
The figure of 2,025 deaths, which is added to the approximately 300 additional deaths already recorded by Public Health France for the less intense heat episode at the end of May, is, in fact, only a very partial snapshot. It is based solely on electronic death certificates, which only account for a little over 60% of all deaths, and does not yet take into account deaths recorded after heatwave days, as this can have delayed health effects on organisms.
“Underestimated” data
Although it is not possible at this stage to certify that these additional deaths are directly linked to heat, in the absence of a major epidemic, it is difficult to envisage another major probable cause of mortality. The national health agency, which promises a more solid assessment within three weeks, therefore calls not to focus excessively on the estimated number of deaths at present, stressing that these data are “underestimated” and that the real mortality will be “higher”.
On the other hand, this first assessment gives a realistic idea of mortality trends. The increase in deaths thus seems to have been particularly marked in Île-de-France and in Pays de la Loire, with a jump of around 62% in both cases. But, due to the demographic weight of the Paris region, the effect is particularly noticeable there.
As for age groups, the increase in deaths almost only concerns those over 45, even though at the start of the heatwave, several caregivers had warned of serious cases among young adults who had made excessive efforts. And “even if we have an increase among 45-64 year olds which is clearly visible, the number of deaths among those aged 65 and over represents the largest share,” warned Public Health France.
Deaths at home
One last point, already much discussed by the health authorities and the government, is confirmed. The increase is particularly noticeable for deaths at home, which have almost doubled (+91%) in one week. It is less sensitive in nursing homes (+37%) even if Public Health France again calls for caution due to patchy coverage, particularly geographically.
On Thursday, the Prime Minister saw in these deaths at home “the big difference with 2003”, saying he was working on “a network of centers for the protection of vulnerable people”. However, the number of deaths at home (around 5,000) was already high in 2003.
Mortality also on the rise in Belgium
Mortality on the rise in Belgium
Belgium also suffered an unprecedented increase in deaths during the June heatwave, according to a provisional report published Friday by the federal government. “According to preliminary data, Belgium recorded an excess mortality of 39% (+1,222 additional deaths) between Thursday June 18 and Monday June 29,” the health authorities detailed in a press release.
