Now that Early Voting has ended in Maryland and we look forward to Election Day on November 8th I thought I would take a look at some national polling via Real Clear Politics (RCP) to see what we are looking at across the county in the races for Governor, Senate and House races.
Latest Governor Polling: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/elections-map.html
The 5 races I am watching:
- Polling clearly shows (D) Wes Moore in a dominate position to win in 2022 over Dan Cox (R). I am not sure the margin will be as wide as the polling shows but I think it will be difficult for Cox to pick up enough Democrat and Independent voters to make up the overall margin in the polling.
- RCP has PA leaning for (D) Josh Shapiro over (R) Doug Mastriano…many polls have that race at 10 points or more for Shapiro.
- Kari Lake (R) vs Katie Hobbs (D) is one of the most interesting races in the nation right now. It is currently listed as a toss up but Lake seems to have a VERY slight edge in most of the latest polling.
- Latest polling has Brian Kemp (R) leading over Stacey Abrams (D) ranging between 5 and 15 points.
- The fact that this race is listed by RCP as a toss up is VERY intersting. Who would have thought that this state would be in play for Republicans. Kathy Hochul (D) has a slight edge over Lee Zeldin (R) in most of the latest polling ranging from 4 to 12 points.
Some other races to watch: Texas, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oregon and Minnesota.
Latest Senate Polling: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map.html
The 5 races I am watching:
- Chris Van Hollen (D) looks well on his way to easily defeating Chris Chaffee (R). Only one poll listed giving Van Hollen as 20+ point lead.
- Currently listed as a toss up state between Mehmet Oz (R) and John Fetterman (D). I see this as one of the biggest Senate races in 2022 and the outcome may be telling on a national level.
- Currently listed as a toss up state between Herschel Walker (R) and Raphael Warnock (D). I can honestly see this race going either way…but if the Governors race goes Republican that could carry over in this race.
- Another toss up state via RCP with Adam Laxalt (R) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D) back and forth leading in the polling at times.
- Ohio is lean for the Republican candidate J.D. Vance (R) over Tim Ryan (D) in most of the latest polling. It is not a BIG lead but has been increasing / trending GOP in the past month.
Some other races to watch: Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado and Washington.
Latest House Polling: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/house/elections-map.html
Races I am watching:
- Congressional District 1: Harris (R) vs Mizeur (D). The RCP does not list any polling or have a call in this race…meaning that it is likely to stay Republican.
- Congressional District 6: Parrott (R) vs Trone (D). Only one poll listed here with Parrott up by 2 points. Trone has more than enough money to spend his way into another reelection but the newly drawn district and the potential “Red Wave” really does put this seat in play in 2022.
- Congressional District 2: Ambrose (R) vs Ruppersburger (D). RCP calls this race “Likely Dem” in 2022 today and given the party affiliation of the district that is what most expect. This newly drawn district does open up a slight possibility for Ambrose if Republicans and Independents (that lean R) come out to vote in Baltimore and Carroll counties…and Baltimore City.
- Congressional District 3: Morgan (R) vs Sarbanes (D). No call from RCP on this race but one would assume if they did they would be calling it for Sarbanes. I covered Howard County for many years and know how popular Sarbanes is in that area but Anne Arundel could be the deciding factor in that race.
Other items of interest in Maryland:
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has put three of the races above as “On The Radar” (Districts 2, 3 and 6) so they have taken an interest in these races and may have some internal polling showing that there are real possibilities in 2022 to pick up some of these seats:
President Biden will be visiting Maryland on Monday (Learn More). He is scheduled to be in Columbia (Now it looks like President Biden will be in Bowie, Maryland on Monday (SOURCE) so I am not sure if he is making one stop or multiple stops in Maryland on November 7th) – so he will be in Congressional District 3 on the day before the election. This adds to the speculation that maybe there are some close races here in Maryland that are flying under the radar.
There are no outside of Maryland House races I am watching closely…more just watching to see what the total of representatives (by party) will be after November 8th. It is very much looking like the Republicans will take over the house next year.
That is my look at some things happening across the nation as we head towards election day (November 8th).
General Election: November 8, 2022, Polling locations open from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m.