I have never been a big fan of national polling in a presidential race (we do not elect a President by popular national vote). I much more prefer to watch the individual state polling data.
Here is a look at state polling (potential Presidential race of Biden vs Trump) that was published this past week (Monday October 9th – Saturday October 14th):
October 10th:
Oklahoma: Trump vs. Biden | Trump 55, Biden 27 | Trump +28
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden | Trump 45, Biden 33 | Trump +12
Nevada: Trump vs. Biden | Biden 46, Trump 45 | Biden +1
October 11th:
Idaho: Trump vs. Biden | Trump 55, Biden 26 | Trump +29
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden | Trump 45, Biden 36 | Trump +9
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden | Trump 42, Biden 35 | Trump +7
October 12th:
Kansas: Trump vs. Biden | Trump 47, Biden 31 | Trump +16
Missouri: Trump vs. Biden| Trump 50, Biden 33 | Trump +17
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden | Trump 42, Biden 40 | Trump +2
October 13th:
Nebraska: Trump vs. Biden | Trump 47, Biden 31 | Trump +16
Indiana: Trump vs. Biden | Trump 48, Biden 29 | Trump +19
West Virginia: Trump vs. Biden | Trump 59, Biden 23 | Trump +36
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden | Trump 44, Biden 34 | Trump +10
You can view these polls here on Real Clear Politics: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
For the sake of this article I am going to call the following:
- Any polls with an lead of 7 points or less as a leans to a candidate
- Any polls with a lead of 8 points to 14 points as likely to that candidate
- Any polls with a lead of 15 points or more as safe to that candidate
Given those parameters..here is what the released state polling data for this past week shows:
You can create you own map on 270toWin here: https://www.270towin.com/
Anytime a large release of state polling data is released in a given week The Observer will provide that information to followers.
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