The El Niño phenomenon is now “firmly established” and is expected to strengthen further in the coming months to reach a “very strong” intensity with an almost certainty that it will continue until February 2027, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Thursday.
“El Niño has firmly established itself and will intensify to become a very strong phenomenon in the coming months, with significant impacts on temperature and precipitation patterns, as well as the associated risks of floods, droughts and extreme heat,” warns a new update from the WMO.
The episode “should strengthen further over the coming months to reach a very high intensity before reaching its peak towards the end of 2026,” warns the WMO. In addition, the organization points out, the latest seasonal forecasts from WMO’s global production centers indicate “an exceptionally high probability” of almost 100% that El Niño will persist until February 2027.
“We are in a high-risk area.”
“El Niño is taking on exceptional proportions before our eyes. The science is unequivocal: the planet is entering uncharted waters, and these waters are warming. Sea surface temperatures are reaching record levels, the mercury continues to rise and we are in a high-risk zone where extreme weather events are becoming the new normal,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
Overheated water
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that returns every two to seven years. Surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific warm from spring onwards, leading to major changes in global wind, pressure and precipitation patterns in the following months.
Sea surface temperatures in this area of the equatorial Pacific are already significantly above average and continue to rise. They were on average 1.5°C higher than normal between May and July 2026, then 2.0°C in July, notes the WMO, also mentioning readings of 2.2°C to 2.6°C above the average between the end of July and mid-August, “which testifies to the continued strengthening of the phenomenon”.
Below the ocean surface, ocean temperatures were even in some areas more than 8°C higher than average in July and early August. “These conditions therefore confirm the persistence of El Niño and the possibility of further strengthening over the coming months,” according to the WMO update.
While each El Niño is different, the phenomenon has historically caused or intensified droughts and fire risks in certain regions of the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia and Australia, monsoon disruptions in India or torrential rains in eastern Africa.
Since 1950, seven episodes have reached the “very strong” level, according to the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the strongest having appeared in 1982-1983.
“No time to waste”
This phenomenon adds to climate change caused by human activities, boosting extreme weather events. However, the intensity of an El Niño episode is not enough to determine the severity of its consequences in a given country or region, underlines the WMO.
Its effects vary regionally and seasonally and can be modified by other climatic factors, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
For the period September-November 2026, WMO forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas, as well as precipitation patterns consistent with a strong and classic atmospheric response to a strong El Niño in the Pacific.
El Niño “has the potential to deliver a major blow to populations and economies around the world. We are already seeing the disruption and devastation caused by droughts and floods, and we expect these effects to worsen as El Niño intensifies,” warned WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“This exceptional El Niño episode requires exceptional preparation and response (…) There is no time to lose,” she added. “A race against time is now being played out between the worsening risks and our determination to act for the climate and protect populations. This is a race that we must win,” Mr. Guterres urged.
The year after El Niño, heat stored in the ocean is released into the atmosphere, generally helping to increase global temperatures, leading many climate scientists to predict that 2027 will be the warmest on record. The hottest year to date is 2024, after the last El Niño.
