A wave of strategic concern is sweeping Beijing after an American startup unveiled a system that flings pancake-shaped microprojectiles into space with a giant centrifugal launcher. The reveal has sparked a mix of admiration and alarm, as aerospace planners weigh the promise of cheaper access to orbit against new military and commercial uncertainties. For China’s space establishment, the potential to launch dozens of disc-like craft per day is both a technical marvel and a geopolitical headache.
A pancake in orbit, by design
Unlike traditional cubes or cylinders, these micro-satellites adopt a flattened, “pancake” profile to better weather the brutal accelerations and heating of a kinetic launch. They reportedly weigh around 70 kilograms and span roughly 2.3 meters, packing avionics hardened for tens of thousands of G’s and a shielded outer shell for aerothermal loads. The shape reduces cross-section during the atmospheric punch-out, then deploys antennas and sensors once safely in thin air and microgravity. The approach promises high launch cadence, with batches of compact spacecraft peeled off a carrier like precision discs in rapid succession.
The kinetic launcher behind the shock
At the center is a sealed vacuum chamber that spins a long arm at extreme speed before releasing its payload through a momentary port toward the sky. Tests in New Mexico have demonstrated suborbital launches at up to 8,000 km/h, with loads enduring accelerations near 10,000 G—numbers that are dramatic by any standard and undeniably disruptive. The firm projects launch costs of roughly $1,250–$2,500 per kilogram, undercutting many conventional rockets while avoiding large booster stages and their emissions and complexity. If orbital demos succeed, a planned constellation could be distributed from a single “bus,” scattering dozens of satellites efficiently across planes and slots.
Why Beijing is uneasy
Chinese planners see three intertwined risks: a surge in U.S. launch tempo, a reshaped communications market, and the dual-use character of high-rate launch. An arm-driven system could be built on hardened industrial infrastructure and scaled to new sites faster than a fully reusable rocket fleet, giving competitors a logistical edge. Pancake satellites could enable resilient, low-latency networks with rapid replenishment, complicating efforts to compete in broadband and imaging services. And while the company emphasizes benign applications, the line between commercial micro-sats and tactical assets is thin enough to worry military analysts.
“China can match conventional rockets, but a mature kinetic launcher is a different cost curve—and a different playbook,” said a Beijing-based space policy scholar, noting the confluence of economic and security incentives.
Likely Chinese responses include:
- Fast-tracking domestic kinetic or electromagnetic launch R&D to achieve parity and deterrence.
- Tightening space traffic policies to shape norms around debris, deorbiting, and coordination in LEO.
- Accelerating sovereign constellations for communications, PNT augmentation, and Earth observation resilience.
- Leveraging export finance to bind partners into Chinese launch ecosystems and ground stations worldwide.
- Pursuing international standards that raise safety bars without stifling innovation at home.
Opportunity meets risk for the rest of the world
For emerging space nations, lower costs and higher cadence are undeniably welcome and transformative. Kinetic launch could open orbital services to universities, startups, and regional governments that previously faced prohibitive prices and queues. Environmental gains are also plausible: fewer booster stages mean fewer emissions per kilogram to orbit, alongside simpler ground operations and supply chains. Yet hazards loom, from spectral interference to proliferating debris, especially if constellations proliferate without robust end-of-life plans and tracking.
Mitigation will demand reliable autonomous collision avoidance, transparent ephemeris sharing, and enforced deorbit guarantees after mission end of life. Insurance markets will likely pressure operators to adopt stronger debris safeguards and hardened payload requirements for high-G profiles and reentry contingencies. Absent disciplined norms, a cheaper path to orbit could become a congested and contested commons, undermining the very economic benefits it aims to unlock.
What to watch next
All eyes are on the first orbital demonstration: payload survivability, spin-to-release accuracy, and on-orbit commissioning will determine whether this becomes a niche novelty or the next mainstream platform for LEO. Regulators will scrutinize acoustic impacts, flight corridors, and export control of potentially dual-use hardware and know-how. Competitors will recalibrate pricing, vehicle sizing, and rideshare policies to defend margins against a kinetic upstart with an unconventional cost stack. And China—alerted and motivated—will blend policy, finance, and engineering to ensure it is not outpaced by a new kind of launcher running on rotational energy.
If the technology performs as advertised, the industry faces a rebaselining of cost, pace, and resilience, with consequences that ripple from rural broadband to national security and scientific access. If it stumbles, the lessons will still reshape design rules for robust smallsats and the economics of high-cadence operations in space.
